Lean Six Sigma Academy

John Hunter recently commented that he owns some Toyota stock. And since I value John’s wisdom I decided to take a look at the TM chart to see what it looked like.

Now, before I go any further, let me be crystal clear… I am not offering any financial advice and, at least for now, I am not an owner of Toyota stock. I do own two Toyota vehicles though… and LOVE them but I digress. Oh, and Toyota also has a rocking production system but, again, I’m digressing!

Fun with Technical Analysis

Anyhow, I used to mess around trading stocks. And since I’ve studied things like technical analysis I thought it might be kind of fun to track Toyota’s stock from a technical perspective.

Let me also say that I am far from an expert at this and would love nothing more than to hear your opinions of what you see and what you think will happen.

My Take on the TM Stock

Anyhow, here is my first take on what I see… keeping it real simple for now. In the future I may pull out some fun stuff like Fibonacci retracements and MACD crossovers… but for today’s lesson we’ll look at some simple support and resistance lines.

If you click on the chart you’ll notice that this stock had been on a steady downward trend bouncing between a nice little “channel” that I’ve manually drawn in.

Then, the stock was crushed in early October of 2008 as Toyota failed to impress the street with their FY 2009 Guidance.

After this beating the stock gyrated sideways finding support around $60 (point A). It also, interestingly enough, found resistance at what used to be a support line (point B). Isn’t this stuff intriguing?

Anyhow, in April of this year the stock finally managed to bust back into the channel only to meet the same downward trending resistance (point C) which forced it back down.

What’s Next?

From a purely technical perspective the biggest question mark I have is whether or not the stock will find support at around $68 (point D). If it does, it could possibly see a bullish bounce up… but, AGAIN, I am not offering any financial advice here. I’m just a nerd who loves to look at charts.

What do you think?

What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on Toyota’s stock? Do you see anything else on their chart I might be missing?

I used to check my website stats several times a day.  I’ll admit, I had a problem… but I’m guessing most bloggers have similar issues when first starting out.

Well, I’m happy to say that I now check my website stats about once a week.  And I check my “ebook stats” about once every two months since they’re found on another website.

Time to Check Some Stats

Well, it had been a few months since I had logged in to see how many people had downloaded the LSS Academy Guide to Lean ebook so I recently checked it out.

I logged into my Aweber account and started digging around.  After a few minutes I came upon some graphs I had never seen before.

After some more digging and clicking I came upon the graph to the left (click to enlarge it).

Upon first glance (the arrows weren’t there) I was fairly pleased with the nice slope.  But the more I looked at it the more I felt like something was unique about the slope.  It seemed like it intensified around November of last year.

Time for Minitab

Well, being the lean six sigma nerd that I am… I decided to export the data into Minitab for some serious data analysis.  I applied some formulas in order to graph the number of new ebook downloads per month.

With this data I then created the Individuals and Moving Range Chart to the left (click to enlarge).

Well, as you can clearly see something definitely “happened” around November of 2008.  And while our website traffic has consistently grown, month over month, it hasn’t grown this much in one month.

Something else had to be happening.  But what?  Then I remembered!

Design Changes Make an Impact!

Late last November I had my web design guy make a small tweak to the LSS Academy site.  The tweak had to do with the ebook sign-up form.  Basically I had him enlarge it.  I also paid a guy a few bucks to design a really slick cover for the ebook.

Well, it would seem that these small changes made a rather significant difference to the number of ebook downloads.

Data Analysis Lesson

Aside from being a good lesson on how important things like web design can be to a website’s performance, this experience also taught me how important it is to properly analyze data.

Some folks may have stopped after looking at the first graph… but it wasn’t until the second graph, with control limits in place, that we could be sure that something truly significant occured.

Free Control Chart Training

If you’d like to learn more about control charts, and don’t want to spend a dime, please check out these articles I’ve dusted off from the archives.

• Control Charts Part 1: In this article I explain what control charts are, their history, why control limits are +/- 3 standard deviations from the mean.
• Control Charts Part 2: Attribute data - p chart, c chart, u chart
• Control Charts Part 3: Variable data - I MR charts

What about you?

How else would you have looked at my data?  Have you used control charts successfully in your place of work?  And what about my fellow bloggers… have any of you thrown your data into Minitab for a little fun?

While it has nothing to do with lean or six sigma this was just too good to not share.

My 4 year old daughter recently asked my wife, “Mommy, does Spiderman take away the sins of the world?”

Sure, they ‘cost’ a lot of money… but to me… kids are priceless!

Enjoy your weekend - and especially your children - if applicable.

Did you know that 50% of all leaders are below average? It’s a fact.

With this said, a good friend of mine recently asked me what I thought the Standard Work document would look like for a “Leader.”

In other words, if you could list out the things a leader of people would do, on a consistent basis, what would it be?

I definitely have some ideas and, yes, I realize it is literally impossible to cover all aspects of leadership in a single Standard Work document… but I contend it’s worth a shot.

Over to you

So, dear readers, I’d like to hear what you think. If you were to create a “Leadership Standard Work” document or process what would it look like?

The human brain fascinates me. As such, I was very excited to finally read Brain Rules by John Medina.

In this book Medina proposes 12 different rules, that once understood, may help us all to be happier and more productive individuals.

Here is a quick summary of the 12 rules. At the end of the article will be an awesome slide show created by Garr Reynolds of Presentation Zen fame.

• Rule #1: Exercise boosts brain power. Medina proposes that the most effective meetings would be ones where all attendees walked 1.8 miles per hour.

• Rule #2: The human brain evolved, too. Medina proposes, “There is no greater anti-brain environment than the classroom and cubicle.”

• Rule #3: Every brain is wired differently. Each time we learn something our brain is literally re-wired. Medina also claims the categories of intelligence may number more than 7 billion!

• Rule #4: We don’t pay attention to boring things. Microsoft is to blame for this as their famous “PowerPoint” software has resulted in far more boring meetings than anyone should have to deal with. Stop reading the slides man!

• Rule #5: Repeat to remember. As powerful as they are, most human brains can only hold around seven pieces of information for less than 30 seconds. To remember we must repeat things… a lot.

• Rule #6: Remember to repeat. Medina claims that our schools are currently designed so that most real learning has to occur at home.

• Rule #7: Sleep well, think well. In one study, a 26-minute nap improved NASA pilots’ performance by 34 percent.

• Rule #8: Stressed brains don’t learn the same way. Medina claims that the emotional stability of our homes plays a huge part in how our children learn.

• Rule #9: Stimulate more of the senses. Ever wonder why, if you like coffee, walking into a Starbucks makes you feel happy? Smell. That’s why.

• Rule #10: Vision trumps all other senses. Bullet points are so 1998… use images and simple phrases to get your point across in your presentations.

• Rule #11: Male and female brains are different. Show a man a slasher film and his right brain lights up… while a woman’s left brain goes into overdrive. Same movie, different reactions.

• Rule #12: We are powerful and natural explorers. We humans love to explore and learn new things even if crammed inside a cubicle 40 hours a week!

Editors Note: This is a guest post from Michael Lombard. And Buckeye fans please forgive me… I’m sure this is probably some type of college football sin to allow a post such as this on this blog!  Go Bucks!

I’m still a little stoked from seeing my Gators take care of business last night and wrap-up their 2nd BCS Championship in the past three years. This has inspired me to discuss what I think is the secret to the Gators’ success–their head coach, Urban Meyer, who I believe to be a Lean leader (don’t tell anybody).

As a UF alum and lifelong football die-hard, it’s no surprise that I follow Gator football closely. In particular, for the last four years I’ve paid close attention to Meyer’s leadership style. Some coaches are yellers (like Chucky, err, Jon Gruden), some are manipulators (think Bill Parcells), and some are evil geniuses (Bill Belichick anyone?). But not Urban Meyer. He’s a Lean thinker.

Urban Meyer thinks long-term

Case in point: even after winning his first BCS Championship two years ago, he said he felt uneasy because his program wasn’t where it needed to be. He had a “great team but a bad program,” in his words.

He said this because although his team was stacked with talent from a monster recruiting class that his predecessor had landed, half of these players were seniors or would leave early for the NFL, leaving him with a weak team the next year, and he was right. He didn’t want up & down cycles like that. He wanted to level it out and recruit balanced classes each and every year, so he could achieve balanced results each and every year.

Sounds like heijunka to me. More importantly, it sounds like long-term systems thinking instead of short-term manage-by-results thinking that plagues coaches and businesses everywhere.

Urban Meyer values flexibility

Meyer’s Lean leadership style is also reflected in the types of players he recruits. Like Toyota, he seeks out talent that’s more flexible than the competition. Yes, there’s always a need for deep functional expertise in both Toyota’s engineering departments and on the Gators’ roster, but both of these organizations place a premium on flexibility.

Look at the Gators’ QB, Tim Tebow. He’s not the most accurate passer (but he’s accurate), he doesn’t have the strongest arm (but he gets it there well enough), and he’s not the fastest runner (but he’ll run a linebacker over in a heartbeat). However, add up all his skills and you have a well-rounded athlete capable of doing whatever it takes to score points (he’s also a tremendous person).

Because of Tebow’s (and his teammates’) flexibility, the Gators can run a wide range of plays out of their spread-option offense. This allows them to plan different schemes for different defenses and to make mid-game adjustments as needed. Toyota has the same type of advantage in developing new products and refining processes because they have a deep bench of well-rounded engineers and operators.

Urban Meyer practices “genchi genbutsu”

Also, Urban Meyer is well-known for being one of the most hands-on coaches in football, especially with his Special Teams (kickoff, kick return, punting, punt return, etc.). Meyer is personally involved in every aspect of Special Teams, showing that he’s not afraid to “go to the gemba” and become deeply knowledgeable of the smallest details of the work. And think of the awesome message that this must send to his coaching staff and players—“If the head guy’s not afraid to get his hands dirty, then I better be filthy dirty out there on the shopfloor.” This is a staple of any Lean culture (think of the Ohno Circle).

Okay, I think I’ve rambled on enough here about Urban Meyer and the Mighty Gators (did I mention they’re the national champions again this year?).

My hypothesis should be clear—I think Urban Meyer is a Lean leader and will produce Toyota-like results for years to come. In true PDCA fashion, we’ll have to check back this time next year to verify results (I feel confident though!).

What do you think?

About the author: Michael Lombard is a lean thinker, “treehugging capitalist”, and a wannabe project manager currently working for Palm Harbor Homes, Inc. You can find him on Twitter as mglombard, or view his LinkedIn profile here.

As regular readers of the blog know I am a huge Ohio State University fan.

Well, as many of my American readers probably know we lost to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl tonight with only  seconds left on the clock.  It was a true heart breaker for OSU fans… especially since the country seems to love hating us and no one gave us a chance in this game.

The thing I love about this particular team are how many of the seniors on the team turned downed millions of dollars last year as they decided to come back for their senior seasons.

Of course there are other schools that also have seniors come back (a.k.a. Mark Graban’s mighty Wildcats of Northwestern) but I think it’s safe to say the trend today is to leave for the money, especially those that will be drafted in the first round.

Two young men in particular stand out.  James Laurinaitis (shown in picture) and Malcolm Jenkins both came back for their senior seniors.   I can only imagine how much they wanted to win tonight as it was their last game as a Buckeye.

But, alas, they didn’t and it stinks for them and for Buckeye nation.  But this senior class never lost to Michigan and goes out as the second winningest senior class of all time.  That ain’t too shabby.

And for those interested, here is the scripture verse James has under his eyes.

When Jesus had said this, he raised his eyes to heaven and said, “Father, the hour has come. Give glory to your son, so that your son may glorify you.” (Jn 17:1).

Go Bucks!

Enjoy and Happy New Year all!

I was recently asked to describe the key characteristics of a successful leader/person. Here’s my take on it.

1. Hustle

Nothing beats hustle. I don’t care how smart someone is, in my opinion, if they’re not willing to work their butts off they will not succeed long term.

This is actually one of the reasons I attribute to any success I’ve enjoyed in my career. You see, I have never been the smartest guy in the room… but, at least for the most part, I have rarely been out hustled by anyone. This has served me very well.

2. Get things done

The main reason the hustling person is so valuable is because they get things done. Instead of talking about problems or complaining about them… the hustling leader is actually attempting to do something about it.

3. Do what you say, and say what you do

Next, nothing is worse than making promises you cannot keep. So, if you say you are going to do something… do it. And if you don’t think you will be able to get something done, don’t say you will.

4. Fail better

Another attribute of the successful person is their willingness to fail. This is to say they are willing to challenge the status quo while not worrying about being wrong.

It also means that when they do meet a temporary setback – or failure – these people find a way through it. They don’t settle. They don’t quit. They are relentless. They are willing to fail better.

5. Think

Lastly, the successful person is always thinking. They’re constantly wondering why. They’re constantly searching for a better way. They challenge others and themselves by asking tough questions to tough problems. In short, because of their constant thinking they make others think.

What do you think?

Do you agree with this list? Have I missed anything?

My good friend - and fellow Keller, Texas lean blogger (it’s a small world) - Mark Graban is holding an auction over at his blog. The proceeds are going to support the Josie King foundation.  If you’d like to support this noble cause please click here.